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Alex The Great - Q&A
Ask Alex The Great
Q: Philip Rivers & Brett Favre had horrible games on Sunday and have struggled in recent weeks. Who do I go with this weekend?

A: It’s tough to choose between two players that did nothing the previous week. Ever since getting hurt Week 11 versus New England, Favre has been pitiful. He’s thrown only 4 TD’s compared to 8 INT’s in his last 4 games. One has to believe that injury is still lingering. Considering Favre doesn’t have much of a supporting cast, he’ll continue to try and do too much and most likely continue to play mediocre. Rivers on the other hand, has no such excuse. He has an excellent supporting cast but has only completed barely over 50% of his passes the last four games. One thing to take note on is the fact that he has dropped off after 11 games, which was a full college football season when he was playing. This is his first full NFL season, so fatigue might be setting in. In either case, you have to go with Rivers because of the better matchup & better supporting cast. Under the circumstances, that’s all you can do at this point.

    Alex The Great
Q: I need to select a number 2 running this weekend. Who do you like, Travis Henry or Marion Barber?

A: Marion Barber, hands down. Barber has been the more consistent & productive back of the two. You might be tempted to pit Henry against his old Bills team, especially when they have a very poor run defense. Henry, however, had the chance to rip up a very poor Indianapolis run defense and while he did ok, it wasn’t what you would have hoped for. Tennessee right now is being led by Vince Young, meaning opportunities are starting to dwindle as Young is now the more attractive option for scoring touchdowns. Barber on the other hand is constantly used as a red zone threat and will be going up against a suspect Philadelphia run defense. When you’re this deep in the playoffs, you have to go with consistency.

    Alex The Great
Q: Should I even bother playing Roy Williams this weekend?

A: While Chicago is starting to give up some points lately, Kitna will most likely continue to flounder. Kitna threw for only 135 yards & Roy Williams had only 1 catch on Sunday against Green Bay. Green Bay has one of the worse pass defenses in all of football. Yikes! There is a lot of frustration coming from Detroit’s offensive players, and you can’t blame them, especially after watching Detroit call a QB sneak on a 3rd & 6. There’s a chance Williams could be productive because Chicago has clinched home field throughout the playoffs & most likely will start playing their backups after the early going. It’s still risky because the defensive scheme is still the same and if you can’t throw against the Green Bay secondary, what makes you think you can throw against the Bears backups in Soldier Field? If you have a safer option, I’d go with that instead.

    Alex The Great
Q: What’s going on with Tony Romo? Should I risk starting him this week?

A: Tony Romo’s sudden decline has a lot of owners worried, including myself. If you throw out the Thanksgiving game, Romo hasn’t done much since Week 10. What’s more concerning is that he should have had better games against the mediocre New Orleans & New York Giants secondaries. Now that there is game film of him, he’s more than likely facing defenses that have readjusted to take away his strengths. How Romo responds is a big question mark. His next 2 games are against Atlanta & Philadelphia, whose defenses both have had moderate success against fantasy QB’s. Right now it’s a big risk/reward play. If you like to roll the dice, I’d stick with Romo this week and see what happens. If you are more of the risk adverse type & you have a better matchup, go with that instead.

    Alex The Great
Q: Reggie Bush has been impressive as of late. Does he warrant a must start label?

A: If you look at Reggie Bush’s total points thus far, he is more than likely at the bottom end of #2 running backs. His production the last 2 weeks however, show that he is capable of being a #1 running back. So is this a fluke or not? If you look closely, most of his value is coming as a receiver. Trying to play him according to the matchup is a bit harder to do, but there isn’t anything special about the all around defenses he’ll be going against the rest of the year. He is still a risky play, but right now Drew Brees is in a groove and Bush has been benefiting immensely. Continue to start Bush from now until the end of the year.

    Alex The Great
Q: Darrell Jackson is out & I need to fill his void. Are Nate Burleson or D.J. Hackett valid replacements?

A: With Seattle playing San Francisco this weekend, I can understand why you would want to target Seattle players. D.J. Hackett had a nice game last week as the number three receiver and is putting together a nice little season. Nate Burleson on the other hand has been a bit of a disappointment but will get the start on Sunday over Hackett. I first would recommend looking for a starter on the waiver wire before trying either option (a list of players is listed on our “Buy, Watch or Pass” column) because you’re looking for stability in the fantasy playoffs. If not, then I would go with Hackett. Burleson may be starting but Hackett got most of the reps when Jackson went down last Sunday & is a more dangerous receiver.

    Alex The Great
Q: Is it time to jump off the Rex Grossman bandwagon?

A: I know a lot of people are tempted to get rid of him after his horrendous performance versus Minnesota. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a QB produce negative points 3 times in a season. If there is a saving grace, it’s that he has an incredibly favorable schedule after this week. He’ll go up against Tampa Bay, Detroit & Green Bay, all of which are in the top 5 for defenses that allow most fantasy points to QB’s. When Grossman is good, he’s really good, and when’s bad, he’s REALLY bad. This Sunday versus St. Louis I would keep him on the bench, but after that, he may start to put it back together. With those opponents he’ll be facing, now is not the time to drop him just yet.

    Alex The Great
Q: I have both Marion Barber & Julius Jones. Jones is the starter but Barber is more productive. Who should I go with?

A: Bill Parcells said that Julius Jones is still the starter & that Marion Barber will continue to serve the role he’s been playing all year. Even though Jones has the “starter” tag, he hasn’t been getting the touches a starter should get, with them both starting to get equal touches over the last couple games. Right now, I would be starting Barber over Jones, hands down. First of all, Jones hasn’t had a touchdown in his last 5 games, mainly due to the fact that Barber is the premier goal line back. Secondly, Barber is averaging a whopping 5.2 yards per carry compared to Jones’ 3.9. So, if they are splitting carries, Barber is going to be more productive. Don’t be fooled by the “starter” label Jones has & feel comfortable starting Barber as your number 2 back the rest of the way.

    Alex The Great
Q: With Jay Cutler now starting in Denver, should I even be starting Javon Walker?

A: It’s hard to say because we’ve only seen one game out of Cutler & as I suspected would happen, he played like a rookie QB. Walker only caught 2 passes for 17 yards, which was his lowest output of the season. It’s not like Walker had been doing so hot before hand, only bringing in 123 yards his previous 2 games. Remember, Walker was practically out all of last year, so it’s very possible that fatigue is starting to set in. Walker has game breaker ability, so I wouldn’t sit him because one of those monster 2+ touchdown games that he is capable of could happen at any time. With Cutler now starting, he’s going to be a high risk, high reward player the rest of the year. I’d continue to play him.

    Alex The Great
Q: What’s going on with Marc Bulger? Should I rely on him come fantasy playoff time?

A: The Rams offense is struggling right now & there are a couple reasons for it. First off, the Rams lost all-pro left tackle Orlando Pace & Bulger is experiencing a lot more pressure than usual. As with any QB, if you don’t give him enough time to throw, he’s not going to be effective, especially when you are constantly trying to convert third and long all the time. Secondly, Bulger has been nursing a rib injury for several weeks now. It’s not surprising considering he’s on pace to be sacked for more than 50+ times this season. The combination of those two are not good. While St. Louis still has Arizona, Washington & Minnesota on its schedule, you have to be very concerned if he’ll even make it through the season. Bulger plays Arizona this weekend which will be key to see how well he can perform against a below average team. If things don’t go so well, I’d be looking at other options, because he has the tough Chicago & Oakland secondaries to go against afterwards.

    Alex The Great
Q: After Addai’s big game on Sunday, would you go with him against a soft Tennessee defense or Westbrook against a tough Carolina defense?

A: You always have to be careful about the big games. They come once every now and then (unless your name is LaDainian Tomlinson) & entice you to over think your lineup. Addai’s game on Sunday was nice, but it still doesn’t hide the fact that his production thus far has been that of a number two back. Certainly Addai is a good insurance plan for an injury plagued Westbrook, but Westbrook has been putting up number one back numbers from the start and is considered a must start due to all the touches he gets in a game. Go with Westbrook all the way unless he gets hurt.

    Alex The Great
Q: What should I do with Reggie Brown? His production has dropped immensely!

A: Ever since Donte Stallworth has returned from injury, Reggie Brown is no longer the primary wide receiver & isn’t getting the same amount of looks anymore. It doesn’t make any sense because of how productive he was in Stallworth’s absence, but that’s the politics of football that we cannot change. To make matters worse, Jeff Garcia doesn’t have the arm to throw downfield and utilize Brown’s speed as McNabb did. Sorry to say for Brown, he’s just a talented receiver who is stuck in unfortunate circumstances beyond his control. At this point you’ll want to keep Brown on your bench & quite possibly drop him for someone else during the fantasy playoffs.

    Alex The Great
Q: Is Jeff Garcia an adequate replacement for Donovan McNabb?

A: My initial thought was of course “no”, but then I began to think about how much Philadelphia passes and decided to give it the wait and see approach. Garcia hasn’t done anything since his early days with the 49ers and has progressively gotten worse each year since 2000. He threw the ball 48 times in Philly’s loss to Tennessee on Sunday, but only completed 26 of those for 189 yards. That’s 3.94 yards per attempt, yuck. Things could get better now that he’ll be running with the first team offense in practice, but we’ll see. Right now, it’s a “no” as far as starting, but it doesn’t hurt to put him on your bench since McNabb won’t be returning again this season.

    Alex The Great
Q: I need to replace LaMont Jordan & can make only one pick up. Would you go with Justin Fargas or Ladell Betts?

A: I’ve taken a lot of heat for my support of Ladell Betts and then proceeded to receive 7 carries on 18 yards. Conventional wisdom says that if you have a young QB then you run the football more. However, Gibbs thought it’d be good to pass, pass, pass even when the score was tied on Sunday. Now it seems that he will be splitting carries with T.J. Duckett. Betts could probably become a decent back if he got the carries, but as of right now, there is no guarantee because nobody has a clue what’s going on in Washington. Maybe that’s why they are 3-7…. Fargas isn’t a great option, but he’s the better of the two. The Raiders offense is absolutely horrible, so the odds of Fargas producing are not good. He does have a pretty favorable schedule down the stretch, which may turn things around for the running game, but don’t count on it. Pick him up, but if you have better options on your bench, go with those first.

    Alex The Great
Q: Is it ok to dump Antonio Bryant for another pickup?

A: At this point, I’d go for it. Bryant has been a huge disappointment since Week 2 of this year. He hasn’t had more than 4 catches in a game all season and only has 2 touchdowns to his name. I thought that things would turn around for him once Week 10 started because the 49ers were going up against some very below average secondaries the rest of the way. However, with two sub par games against Detroit & Seattle, you can’t bank on him anymore. Go ahead and cut your losses if there is a more attractive free agent out there for pickup.

    Alex The Great
Q: Trent Green comes back to start this weekend against Oakland & is available for pick up in my league. I have Eli Manning & David Carr on my roster. Should I dump Carr for Green?

A: That’s quite a QB problem you have there. Manning & Carr have been struggling as of late and we are heading towards the fantasy playoffs. Certainly Manning has the schedule to turn things around, and while Carr does not, Green certainly doesn’t have a favorable schedule either and is coming back after missing almost the entire year due to a severe concussion. One thing Green does have is an elite running attack which will open things up for him. Carr doesn’t have much of a running attack & hasn’t thrown a TD in his last 3 games. At this point, it’s an even swap, with Green having the better upside. I’d make that move, but you should temper your expectations for Green.

    Alex The Great
Q: I’m sick of Travis Henry’s on again, off again production! Should I risk starting him against Philly this weekend over Ladell Betts?

A: I know exactly what you mean. He goes out and shreds an Indianapolis & Washington defense, then plays horrible against a pitiful Houston defense & then runs well against a great Baltimore defense. Philly’s run defense is just a little above average so I know it’s tempting to start him. In this case however, I would start Betts. I know it’s on the road with a QB making his first NFL start, but Gibbs will do his best to calm his young QB down by running the ball. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been better as of late, but Betts has one of the top offensive lines in the NFL and will most likely be able to find plenty of holes. Go with Betts over an inconsistent Travis Henry.

    Alex The Great
Q: Is Anquan Boldin considered a must start anymore?

A: It’s easy to get frustrated this late into the season, especially if you trying to make a push into your league’s playoffs. Matt Leinart certainly hasn’t looked like the QB from when he took over the reigns & has affected Boldin in a big way. Having Fitzgerald out for a period of time didn’t help Boldin either, forcing him to face double teams all the time. But Fitzgerald is back and should allow Boldin more single coverage matchups, which should equal to more catches. Leinart should only improve with time, and with Arizona not having a running attack, that means they will be continuing to throw. Boldin goes against some pretty average secondaries the rest of the way and should be back to normal soon. Be patient and continue to start him.

    Alex The Great
Q: My 2 QB's are Romo and Kitna. I took a chance last week and started Romo, which was a good choice. Any idea on which one to start for Week 10?

A: That’s a tough call. Tony Romo & Jon Kitna have both been playing well and both have a case to start, but I’m going to go with Kitna on this one. While the difference between Arizona (whom Romo is playing) & San Francisco (whom Kitna is playing) in passing defense yardage isn’t much, Arizona’s defense has more sacks, interceptions & has allowed far less passing touchdowns than San Francisco.
On top of that, San Francisco is 0-3 on the road this year and has allowed 116 total points in those 3 games. With Kevin Jones likely to be running through the defense all day, the 49ers will have to load the line of scrimmage and Kitna should be able to find plenty of open receivers. Take Kitna at home against the 49ers.

    Alex The Great
Q: Fred Taylor goes against a weak Houston defense this weekend, but I’m worried he won’t get enough carries to be productive. Should I start or sit him?

A: The thing with Fred Taylor is that he has been outstanding this year, but because of the emergence of Maurice Jones-Drew, his carries have slowly been cut down. Even with the reduced carries, he’s been a nice fantasy RB this year. Whether or not you start him or sit him depends on how many top tier running backs you have. When I say top tier, I’m talking about the guys who have nobody behind them to steal carries and they are constantly producing. Taylor is at the top of the second tier; because he is still productive but isn’t a focal point in the game plan.
It’s always good to play matchups, but if the guy you are playing has a good matchup but not the opportunities, then you could be left shaking your head. To help you out, here are a list of players I’d play before Taylor this weekend:

  • LaDainian Tomlinson
  • Larry Johnson
  • Steven Jackson
  • Kevin Jones
  • Ronnie Brown
  • Clinton Portis
  • Chester Taylor
  • Frank Gore
  • Warrick Dunn
  • Julius Jones
  • Brian Westbrook
  • Willie Parker
  • Tiki Barber
    Alex The Great
Q: Do have any good sleepers at Wide Receiver this weekend (Week 10)?

A: I have two that come to mind. I think Braylon Edwards will have a big game against Atlanta. The Falcons secondary is banged up and have allowed an average of 328 passing yards the last 3 games. Edwards reappeared on the radar after a good game against a tough San Diego defense and believe he can carry that momentum forward. Another is Mike Furrey from Detroit. He continues to fly under the radar and consistently is bringing in catches as Detroit’s number two wide out. With San Francisco giving up points on the road like it’s going out of style, he warrants a start this weekend.

    Alex The Great
Q: After the last 2 games, is it now time to make Michael Vick a must start every week?

A: Not yet, but he is getting there. Vick’s best asset comes from his ability to run, which scores more points in fantasy. But what has made him better as of late is his accuracy, completing 65% of his passes in the last 2 games combined, increasing his passing yard & TD totals. Keep in mind, he still has a 55% completion rate this year & 54% completion rate for his career, so those games may be an aberration.
You can’t determine a player’s value after 2 games, because those may be the two best games he’ll play all year. The rest of Vick’s schedule is favorable enough to where he could be a starter all the way, but it wouldn’t hurt to have a quality backup just in case.
If you do have another quality QB, you may want to consider selling high to help another area of need. I’d wait until after this week’s game against Detroit. He’ll most likely light them up, but then he faces 2 tough defenses against QB’s in a row in Cleveland & Baltimore. His trade value may decrease after those games.
If you do decide to keep him, make sure you have a good backup to play matchups with, because Vick could go back to his old habits at any time.

    Alex The Great
Q: Shaun Alexander is out again this weekend & I have become very frustrated. I’ve been offered a trade, Marques Colston straight up for him. I have Chester Taylor & Frank Gore as reserves. Should I take the deal?

A: That’s a tough call to make. I certainly understand why your trading partner is offering Colston. While Colston may be one of the top receivers right now, his schedule the rest of the way isn’t very favorable & wants to sell high while he can.
Giving up your top draft pick can be hard, especially for a rookie. While Colston is having an outstanding season, he is still susceptible to the rookie wear down towards the end of the year. On the other hand, who knows when Alexander will be back & how effective he will be. Seattle’s schedule against run defenses the rest of the way is pretty lax, but Alexander wasn’t that effective even when he was playing.
Both Gore & Taylor have pretty good schedules the rest of the way, but I’ve always won championships by having 3 good running backs I could rotate according to the matchups.
The offer is tempting, but I’d keep Alexander. With Seattle likely to fight for a playoff spot this year, he’ll be playing the rest of the season barring an injury. I’d rather take a chance on a veteran superstar than a 7th round draft pick rookie.

    Alex The Great
Q: The owner of Bernard Berrian is trying to unload him in my league. After 2 straight sub par outings, is he a good buy low candidate?

A: That’s a yes and no. It’s a yes because he has a good schedule the rest of the way. It’s a no because the Bears may be so far ahead of everyone in the NFL, they may choose to rest their starters during fantasy football playoff time.
In the meantime, with Grossman back to his old form, so he’ll surely find Berrian again soon. But what you are willing to give up for him, knowing that you most likely won’t have him come playoff time, is up to you. Certainly if you have a bevy of QB’s you could throw one in or maybe a lower 2nd tier running back if you have enough. But besides that, I wouldn’t break the bank for him.

    Alex The Great
Q: What are your thoughts on Tony Romo, the new starting QB for the Dallas Cowboys?

A: There is certainly a lot to like about this situation. First off, Tony Romo has TONS of weapons (Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Julius Jones, Jason Witten) so he’ll have plenty of options to throw to. Romo also has better mobility than Bledsoe. It was sad sometimes watching Bledsoe sit back there like a statue, getting knocked around like a pinball. Romo at least has the mobility to avoid sacks, get outside of the pocket in order to make plays. Lastly, the Cowboys schedule against pass defenses the rest of the way is pretty lax.

You do have to be concerned about the 3 interceptions he threw on Monday night, but one of them was because the ball was tipped at the line of scrimmage & he had no choice but to throw the ball trying to come back from a huge deficit. There is a lot of buzz around the Cowboys players about Romo. They all are rallying around him and believe he’s the real deal. Certainly if you have Bledsoe, it doesn’t hurt to drop him for Romo & put him on your bench. I personally want to wait and see how he does against Carolina this weekend before I make a move. If he plays well, you better get your request in quickly. He could one of the better QB’s down the stretch.

    Alex The Great
Q: I have Clinton Portis on a BYE & Shaun Alexander still hurt. I lost the waiver bid to Leon Washington, so I either have to go with Joseph Addai, Maurice Morris or Wali Lundy. Who would you choose?

A: That is certainly a tough question. Every one of those players are a risk this weekend, so when you are encountered with a situation like this, you want to go with the player with the best upside.

Addai will be going up against a VERY tough Denver defense. Sure Indianapolis has Peyton Manning to keep Denver to respect the pass, but it’s not like Manning hasn’t been flustered before. They’ll be playing with the thin air at Denver too. Certainly, this is not the best of matchups.
Maurice Morris hasn’t done much since he’s become the starter, though this matchup is intriguing due to Kansas City’s questionable run defense. However, even when Alexander was healthy, he wasn’t finding many holes to run through either. This offensive line looks like they really miss Steve Hutchinson. Not much in terms of upside for this matchup either.

Then finally we have Wali Lundy. I wrote earlier in the week to wait and see what happens in terms of who will be the starter in Houston, and Lundy is now the man. Without a doubt, this matchup has the best upside. Houston will be going against Tennessee, who has the 4th worst defense & the worst run defense in the NFL. With David Carr playing his best ball since college, they will surely have Tennessee on its heels all game long.

Lundy is still a risk because we’ve seen so little of him. However, he clearly has the best matchup & upside. Go with Wali Lundy.

    Alex The Great
Q: Hines Ward finally showed signs of life with a huge game last week against Atlanta. Is he back to being a regular start or should I wait & see?

A: I’d rather wait and see, especially with the next 2 matchups. This weekend they face Oakland, whom surprisingly has the number one pass defense in the NFL. The same can’t be spoken for their run defense, so Pittsburgh will more likely be running than passing this weekend. Then his next matchup is with Champ Bailey & the Denver Broncos. Enough said on that.

Last week, most of Ward’s numbers came after Batch entered the game for an injured Roethlisberger (51 yards, 1 TD with Big Ben, 120 yards, 2 TD’s with Batch). As I’ve been saying, something is not right with Roethlisberger. First the motorcycle accident & now this concussion, I don’t know if I trust him at this point. Clearly, Ward showed much better chemistry with Batch, whom I think should be starting until Roethlisberger is completely healthy.

There are a lot of clouds hovering around the Steelers at this time. Until the dust settles, Ward is still a risky play right now.

    Alex The Great
Q: I'm in a keeper league, and I have Randy Moss, will he ever have any value again?

A: He may have value on another team, but not with the Raiders. The Raiders are second to last in passing yards per game & passing touchdowns, and DEAD last in completion percentage, interceptions thrown & sacks allowed. The whole team is a mess & there is plenty of blame to go around. You have a head coach & offensive coordinator that have been out of the NFL for 12 years, an offensive line that can’t block anyone, a rookie QB & their second best wide receiver probably will never dress for the Raiders again. With Art Shell likely to be around next year, his value with the Raiders is at rock bottom and will stay there during his tenure. The game has passed Shell by and can not figure out how to effectively use him, nor dissect opposing defenses. You likely are only to get a can of beans for him at this point. Your best hope is that he pulls in a vintage Moss game (100+ yard, 2-3 TD) at which point you might be able to trade him for something to an owner that believes a comeback is on the rise. Expect some sort of rebound if he heads to another team next year, but it’s too risky to value him as a keeper. You should be able to let him go, keep another player, and land him in your 2007 draft.

    Alex The Great
Q: Rex Grossman really killed my team last week. Was he over achieving or are we finally seeing the real Rex Grossman?

A: Okay, so Grossman had a bad game. Doesn’t everyone at one point? Last week was only his 15th NFL game, so let’s cut the guy some slack. Yes he should have ripped apart that Cardinal D, but forget about it and move on. Look at the rest of his schedule; he has great matchups against San Francisco, Miami, New York Giants & Jets, Tampa Bay, Detroit & Green Bay. There is no need to panic. That defense & run game he has will continue to put him in great scoring situations. Continue to start him with confidence.

    Alex The Great
Q: Cadillac Williams has been a disappointment thus far, but has shown improvement the last 2 games. What do you see the rest of the year?

A: Unfortunately, I don’t see much. He doesn’t have any matchups against poor run defenses the rest of the way (besides Cleveland) and with the way Tampa Bay is playing, I don’t see much production coming out of anybody. Bruce Gradkowski has played nice at QB and may open up the run a bit, but to expect production coming against teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Dallas & Seattle is asking for a little too much. He doesn’t have value as a number two back or flex option looking at the rest of his schedule. If you have no choice but to start him, be prepared for the bumpy road that awaits you.

    Alex The Great

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